Primera Preview Jornada 18 - January 14/15 2012
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- Written by Simon Harris
We're looking forward to another interesting set of Liga fixtures in this second matchday of 2012.
All things being equal, the situation is likely to remain the same at the top of the table with leaders Real Madrid taking on lowly RCD Mallorca, who are just two points above the relegation zone.
Following their draw away at Espanyol, FC Barcelona will be keen to bag the three points against Betis in Camp Nou, where their record is near perfect.
The pericos are playing another interesting match this week. Currently in 8th position they take on Sevilla in Sanchez Pizjuan, who are 7th, in what will be a hard fought tussle to move into European positions.
It's also worth keeping an eye on the Atlético Madrid v Villarreal match in which this year's two new boys - Diego Simeone and Jose Molina - will be looking to establish themselves and improve on the disappointing performances of their respective sides so far this season.
The other game that I'm looking forward to is Athletic Bilbao v Levante. I keep waiting for the Levante bubble to burst and wouldn't be surprised if they found themselves against the ropes in the always difficult San Mamés.
Anyway, here are my thoughts on each of the games with Match Odds from Betfair, William Hill and Paddy Power.
Saturday's Games - January 14 2012
18:00 CET Granada CF v Rayo Vallecano
These two sides faired very differently last week - Granada got thrashed 5-1 by Real Madrid and Rayo beat Sevilla 2-1. However, Granada put in a very spunky first half performance until Madrid's individual quality finally got the better of them. Rayo are another team who come out of the starting blocks wanting to play football and their victory over Sevilla will have done a lot for their confidence. I expect quite a few goals in this game and I'll stick my neck out and predict a 3-3 draw (which could, of course, be a 3-2 victory for either side!)
Betfair Match Odds: Granada 2.38 Draw 3.45 Rayo 3.35
William Hill Match Odds: Granada 2.25 Draw 3.25 Rayo 3.2
Paddy Power Match Odds: Granada 6/5 Draw 11/5 Rayo 11/5
18:00 CET Real Zaragoza v Getafe CF
To be perfectly honest, even though they've just taken on new coach Manolo Jimenez, I really don't think that Zaragoza have got a hope in hell this season. It's not that Getafe are anything special, particularly in attack, but this Zaragoza side are very weak. I'll go for a 0-1 win for Getafe.
Betfair Match Odds: Zaragoza 2.64 Draw 3.35 Getafe 2.98
William Hill Match Odds: Zaragoza 2.45 Draw 3.2 Getafe 3.87
Paddy Power Match Odds: Zaragoza 11/8 Draw 11/5 Getafe 15/8
18:00 CET Sevilla FC v RCD Espanyol
Both these sides have managed to draw against the mighty FC Barcelona this season but whereas Espanyol put in a superlative performance to draw against Barça in Cornellà last weekend, Sevilla lost 2-1 to Rayo Vallecano in Vallecas.
To be perfectly, honest with odds like these, I reckon that Espanyol are well worth a bet. Their confidence is high and they've got some truly excellent players - Sergio García and Joan Verdú in particular, but I was also impressed by Thievy and Romaric has his moments. The only thing I can see against them is goalkeeper Cristian Álvarez's injury - substitute young Kiko Casilla is as yet an unknown - and perhaps Sevilla might benefit from the Jose Antonio Reyes factor.
Betfair Match Odds: Sevilla 1.85 Draw 3.75 Espanyol 5
William Hill Match Odds: Sevilla 1.75 Draw 3.4 Espanyol 5
Paddy Power Match Odds: Sevilla 8/11 Draw 12/5 Espanyol 15/4
20:00 CET RCD Mallorca v Real Madrid
Don't even think about it! You know I'm not a great enthusiast of Real Madrid's football but it's extremely effective. I just can't see them dropping points against Mallorca.
Betfair Match Odds: Mallorca 14.5 Draw 6.6 Madrid 1.28
William Hill Match Odds: Mallorca 12 Draw 5.5 Madrid 1.25
Paddy Power Match Odds: Mallorca 9/1 Draw 9/2 Madrid 1/4
22:00 CET Valencia CF v Real Sociedad
On pàper, this should be a very clear win for Valencia but I'm beginning to have my doubts about them. They scraped a draw against Villarreal in the cosing minutes in El Madrigal last week, whilst Real Sociedad got a point against Osasuna in El Reyno de Navarra.
I don't know ... Playing at home, I've got a sneaky feeling that Real Sociedad could pull off another draw at least.
Betfair Match Odds: Valencia 1.5 Draw 4.6 Real Sociedad 8.7
William Hill Match Odds: Valencia 1.4 Draw 4.25 Real Sociedad 8.5
Paddy Power Match Odds: Valencia 2/5 Draw 10/3 Real Sociedad 13/2
Sunday's Games - 8 Jan 2012
12:00 CET Atlético Madrid v Villarreal CF
In many respects, this is potentially the most interesting game this weekend and I'm very loathe to make any predictions.
New coach Jose Molina took Villarreal to a draw against local rivals Valencia last weekend - and Valencia had to pull back a two goal advantage. Having Nilmar back from injury is definitely a stroke of good fortune for Molina but it was his decision to bring veteran midfielder Marcos Senna back into the Yellow Submarine side. A crucial decision, in my opinion, Senna is and always has been effing brilliant and it string as a dreadful mistake on Garrido's part leaving him out of the side this season. He may be getting on and slower than he used to be but he's pure class. With Senna and Nilmar and a little more enthusiasm from the rest of the team, Villarreal are going to be an increasingly tough cookie, I'm sure.
Despite taking part in last weekend's most boring game - the 0-0 draw in La Rosaleda against Málaga - on reflection, Diego Simeone has made some changes to this Atlético Madrid side. Under Gregorio Manzano, they seemed to fiddle in the middle of the park without much rhyme or reason. Simeone's got them playing much wider and coming up the wings. The tactic didn't work last week because the players missed Reyes and Falcao didn't know how to connect with wingers. I think it's a question of time but it could well produce more incisive football from the Colchoneros.
A prediction on this game? No bleedin' idea. mate, but I'll definitely be watching this one!
Betfair Match Odds: Atlético 1.69 Draw 4 Villarreal 5.5
William Hill Match Odds: Atlético 1.7 Draw 3.6 Villarreal 5
Paddy Power Match Odds: Atlético 7/10 Draw 13/5 Villarreal 15/4
16:00 CET CA Osasuna v Racing Santander
Ok ... Racing Santander won last week but it was against Zaragoza so it doesn't really count. The headline in Mundo Deportivo was 'The Least Bad Team Won'. Osasuna, despite drawing 0-0 against Real Sociedad, are having a very good season and are playing some great football. They should win this one very comfortably.
Betfair Match Odds: Osasuna 1.83 Draw 3.5 Racing 5.2
William Hill Match Odds: Osasuna 1.83 Draw 3.4 Racing 4.5
Paddy Power Match Odds: Osasuna 4/5 Draw 12/5 Racing 10/3
18:00 CET Athletic Club v Levante UD
As you can see from the odds the bookies seem pretty sure that Athletic will win this one. It's true that they're very difficuly to beat in San Mamés and they've got the excellent Fernando Llorente back from injury but they're only ninth whereas the Levante bubble hasn't burst yet and they're still up there in fourth position.
I'd say Athletic have to be favourites but with these prices, this game's definitely worth a flutter.
Betfair Match Odds: Athletic 1.65 Draw 3.8 Levante 6
William Hill Match Odds: Athletic 1.67 Draw 3.6 Levante 5.25
Paddy Power Match Odds: Athletic 8/13 Draw 13/5 Levante 9/2
19:45 CET Sporting Gijón v Málaga CF
Sporting, Sporting, Sporting ... I've got a very soft spot for Sporting but they're having a dreadful season. Admittedly, El Molinón is a difficult ground but given the money that's been invested in them, Málaga really should come away with a victory here.
Betfair Match Odds: Sporting Draw Málaga
William Hill Match Odds: Sporting 3 Draw 3.25 Málaga 2.35
Paddy Power Match Odds: Sporting 2/1 Draw 11/5 Málaga 13/10
21:30 CET FC Barcelona v Real Betis
I have absolutely no doubt about this one! Barça are going to be very upset at dropping points against Espanyol last weekend. They've scored 37 goals in Camp Nou this season and had 0 scored against them. Bring on the next victim.
Even at 26 to 1, I wouldn't put my money on Betis!
Betfair Match Odds: Barcelona Draw Betis
William Hill Match Odds: Barcelona 1.07 Draw 11 Betis 26
Paddy Power Match Odds: Barcelona 1/16 Draw 10/1 Betis 25/1
Anyway, those are my thoughts on Liga BBVA 2011-12 Jornada 18. Please feel free to make comments in agreement or disagreement (much more likely) below and registered Spain Football Community Members can join the Liga BBVA thread on the Forum.